An econometric study to predict the nutritional gap of wheat in Egypt for the period (2025-2030

نوع المستند : المقالة الأصلية


1 المعهد العالي للحاسبات وتكنولوجيا المعلومات - اكاديمية الشروق

2 Department of Agricultural Economics of Agricultural and Biological Research of National Research Center



The food problem has become one of the most important problems threatening economic and social development in Egypt because of its dangerous dimensions on the agricultural sector and the Egyptian economy in general. It suffers from a food gap in most strategic food commodities, the most important of which is wheat, and the study aims to predict the wheat gap using a standard model for the period (2025-2030) and using the system of simultaneous equations for a three-stage econometric model. The study expected that the wheat gap would be about 19.7 million tons in the normal case in 2030, and it decreases in the second case as production supports about 8 million and continues to decline in the third case by about 15.9 million tons. As for the self-sufficiency rate of wheat, it will reach 31.3% in 2030 in the normal case, then rise to 42.2% in the second case, and then rise in the third case to reach about 46.9%. This requires the development of a strategy to reduce this gap through some policies and procedures based on horizontal expansion on old and new lands, rationalization of consumption, expansion in the construction of silos, and a balanced price policy for wheat.

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